Provide high resolution (20km*20km) future climate simulations for the South Pacific by dynamical downscaling of several CMIP6 IPCC models using a Regional Climate Model under 2 scenarii where known biases of the IPCC models will be corrected.
Provide very high-resolution (2.5km*2.5km) simulations of Vanuatu (and New Caledonia and French Polynesia through a different source of funding) future atmosphere from the high resolution downscaling. In this activity and according to the needs of Vanuatu, we could focus on three periods: around 2040, 2070 and 2100.
Analyse the impacts of future climate change on two specific sectors (to be decided with national and local authorities depending on the priorities and access to the sectorial data) among for example water, agriculture, health for each of the three periods according to the two selected scenarii.
Design a climate portal website (in collaboration with the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme-SPREP in the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding between Météo-France and SPREP) to make those results usable and freely available to governments, civil society, private sector, etc.
To carry out activities to collect local knowledge constituting the cultures of risk in identified local sites to identify and analyse the knowledge and the modalities of transmission which can be the object of a valorization to support the climate change adaptation. The impact of schooling and other actions for collective appropriation will also be studied.
Support authorities from Vanuatu (and New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna and French Polynesia through a different funding source) to develop or reinforce adaptation plans using results from climate simulations and sectorial impacts. In this phase, surveys and participatory workshops with government and civil society representatives will be conducted to design plans that fit local capacities and priorities.
The regional CLIPSSA project aims to develop new scientific data on the future climate of the South Pacific (by 2100) under various IPCC climate scenarios, including that of the Paris Agreements, and analyse sectoral impacts of local knowledge and adaptation practices already existing in each territory and country. It is an essential basis to facilitate the formulation of adaptation strategies and the development of adaptation action plans in response to climate change in Wallis and Futuna, French Polynesia, New Caledonia and Vanuatu.
On the one hand, the objectives of the CLIPSSA project are to strengthen the resilience of local communities in the face of climate change and, on the other hand, to ensure better collective ownership of changes in ways of doing things and living in the front of environmental transformations in the long term.
Objectives and partners involved
Expected outcomes
- High-resolution climate simulations for the entire South Pacific to better understand the future of the Pacific climate in terms of heat waves, precipitation, droughts and cyclone activity.
- Very high-resolution simulations for three specific spatial windows (Vanuatu, New Caledonia and French Polynesia) and a statistical downscaling over Wallis and Futuna for the next 100 years.
- Updating climate change data from IPCC models and national priorities for key climate-related sectors. For agriculture, the simulations will help answer the following questions: how will precipitation amounts and drought episodes evolve over the next few decades? Do these changes pose a threat to agriculture? What changes in crops might this imply?
- Databases gathering local knowledge and practices constituting the “risk cultures” of the island societies of the project territories, i.e. non-confidential knowledge and know-how beneficial for promoting adaptation to extreme phenomena.
- Analysing the transformations that have affected the places and times of transmission of knowledge and know-how is useful for adaptation.
- The launch of a climate portal website.
- The promotion of climate change adaptation strategies among populations, based in particular on local environmental knowledge. Sectoral public policies could potentially be reviewed to integrate and anticipate these future risks.
Thanks to the new climate projections and qualitative surveys, the authorities will have better knowledge of, among other things:
- The evolution of precipitation and its uncertainties
- The evolution of heat waves and droughts
- The number and intensity of cyclones and other extreme events
- The impacts of climate change over a continuous time between 2020 and 2100
- Local ecological knowledge and lived realities around the effects and reduction of vulnerabilities to climate change.